/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Dorian forecast: Errors and achievements

Dorian devastated everthing he found from The Bahamas to Canada. The national Hurricane Center studied the strom´s formation and development, and how well meteorologists predicted its trajectory and intensity.

What was the verdict?

Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24, 2019 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, crossed the Eastern Caribbean Sea, passing through the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. But this was just de beginning of a journey that would last 15 days and would leave thousands of victims.

The Trajectory

The storm started as a small disturbance in the Caribbean area with dry air, which tends to weaken possible hurricanes. The European numerical model, the most reliable in recent years, could not predict its genesis and the GFS model predicted that it would form much further east. Also, when the storm began to take shape, forecasters did not agree on where the center of the storm would be. "Dorian´s forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking 3 centers" said the specialists.

One of the first paths for Dorian was that it was going to cross over “La Española” and “Puerto Rico” where it was expected for the mountains to dissipate the storm. Another forecast showed him going to Florida. The surprise came when Dorian formed and turn to the right interacting with warmer water. Thanks to this, the storm was able to quickly intensify into a hurricane, resulting in a lack of warning, which would have been necessary for some of the islands at its path, according to the report.

The intensification

After the consolidation stage, forecasters were able to predict the storm´s trajectory without major difficulties. However, they failed in determining its intensity. There was no indication that it would strengthen into a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 m/h, even less that it would stop at the Bahamas for several hours.

Another big dilemma for the meteorologists was whether or not to issue warnings for The Florida. Forecasts showed that the storm´s trajectory was heading north, avoiding the state. But taking into consideration previous mistakes, there were great doubts. They saw an advantage in what had not been able to predict. The storm was not moving fast, and if it deviated from the predicted trajectory, there would be time to issue warnings.

In the end, Dorian effectively took a turn northward as planned, and this successful forecast saved Florida residents and its government a lot of money on unnecessary evacuations.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • • / comentarios

uncapped heroin from Hurricane Dorian.

Chella Phillips saved 97 dogs from dying.

As everyone knows The Bahamas has been viralized by that intense hurricane Dorian , a hurricane that will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the most devastating hurricanes so far in the Hurricane Season 2019 . You know now that the passage of the hurricane destroyed people's homes, flooded the streets and caused the death of at least five inhabitants.

Given the authorities' warning that the weather phenomenon would hit the Caribbean islands, residents prepared as best they could, bought groceries, and took refuge in shelters or their homes. But a woman named Chella Phillips worried not only about keeping her safe, but about street dogs that would have no place to shelter.

He opened the doors of his home to 97 ownerless canines so that they could be safe during hurricane storms.

CHELLA PHILLIPS.

Chella Phillips had to share her room with 79 dogs, but that was the easiest part of having rescued them. Keeping them and their brother who accompanied her in their shelter safe was difficult. The first night Dorian's eye fell on the Bahamas, rain began to flood his home. They used three pumps to drain the water but it was not enough and the liquid exceeded them . After an hour of relentless trying, all of the machinery had overheated and burned, so they had to try to scoop the water out, but they failed entirely.

They ran out of services and their TV broke down from the lightning of the storms that hit the area, so she couldn't use the cartoons to entertain the dogs that were inside her house, and she won't be able to do until you get a new one.

Despite the complications experienced, the Chella was able to keep the 97 dogs safe, with food and water.

Phillips is the director of The Voiceless Dogs of Nassau, a dog shelter in the Bahamas. "I am not affiliated with the Humane Society nor do I receive any kind of government aid. Only me and my love for these homeless dogs is what I do ", he says in the description on his Facebook page.

For eleven years, when she moved to the archipelago, she has been dedicated to helping street animals and four years ago she opened the refuge. During that time, with his own money and donations, he has managed to help 1,000 street dogs.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • History • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • / comentarios

Who says that a Tropical Storm is not dangerous?

Who says that a Tropical Storm is not dangerous?

Many people normally when listening to "tropical storm" think that it is not something to which we must attribute so much attention or that represents a danger to our family or that threatens our home and / or business, we simply pay attention to it when we find out of the approach of a hurricane; but big mistake, this time this is an example of a tropical storm that triggered tragedies.

The tropical storm #Fay on August 15, 2008 penetrating from the east and leaving from the south (Haiti). Fay the sixth tropical storm of that Atlantic Hurricane Season , has already left victims. A woman has drowned and her two children have disappeared when a stream overflows in the municipality of Higuey, in the east of the Dominican Republic, due to the intense rains caused by the tropical storm " Fay ".

The heavy rains that fell on the Dominican Republic and kept much of the nation on high alert, 2,230 people were forced to take refuge in shelters in the capital of the country, Santo Domingo, and affected 446 homes. Throughout the day, the storm Fay was then that it began to move towards Haiti.

Arroyo “Chau Chau”

The 32-year-old fatality lost his life when he and his husband and two children attempted to cross the overflowing “Chau Chau” stream in a vehicle. The husband survived, but his two children were taken from him and swept away by the current ...

The director of civil defense reported

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Manuel 2013

Although it was only category 1 , Manuel left 123 dead , 97 of them occurred in an avalanche in the community of La Pintada, Guerrero . It was also brutalized with Coahuila , Chihuahua and Durango . In addition, there were more than 59 thousand evacuees and at least 218 thousand 594 people affected . Economic losses were estimated at $ 242 million .

On September 13 in the morning the tropical depression No. 13 of the Pacific Ocean was generated, which was formed from a low pressure off the coast of Guerrero that finding favorable conditions led to a tropical depression Thirteen , which started with sustained winds of 55 km / h , gusts of 75 km / h and moving northwest at 6 km / h .

During the day 14 , the tropical storm " Manuel " began with a stationary period and then began its course heading north, moving smoothly erratic while increasing its strength off the coast of Guerrero and Michoacán , causing a wide area of ​​dense cloudiness, whose rotation favors the significant entry of moisture into the southern and western states of the country.

On September 15 , around 2:00 pm, the tropical storm " Manuel " made landfall over the City of Manzanillo, Colima with maximum sustained winds of 100 km / h and gusts of 130 km / h , when advancing on land, the system began to lose strength due to which at 22:00, was already in the vicinity of the population of El Limón, Jalisco, as a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 km / h , gusts of 75 km / h and moving northwest at 13 km / h

At 01:00 a.m. September 16 , the tropical depression " Manuel " was located 25 km northeast of Tomatlán, Jal ., moving northwest at 13 km / h, very close to weakening at low pressure. At 4:00 on the same day, DT “ Manuel ” was already at sea again as a low pressure remaining with maximum sustained winds of 45 km / h and gusts of 65 km / h.

The low pressure, remaining from " Manuel " continued its journey to the northwest and on September 17 in the afternoon, when it was 120 km west-southwest of Mazatlán, Sin., Regenerated to a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 km / h and gusts of 75 km / h , the same force with which it was maintained until morning of day 18 , when it developed for the second time in its path to a tropical storm, being 160 km south-southwest of Culiacán, Sin., with maximum sustained winds of 65 km / h and gusts of 85 km / h.

While gaining strength, the tropical storm “Manuel” began to enter the southern part of the Gulf of California and at 7:00 p.m. on the 18th, when it was 180 km south-southeast of Topolobampo, Sin., It intensified to hurricane acquiring maximum sustained winds of 120 km / h with gusts of 150 km / h , strength with which it was maintained until 19 September at noon, when it touched the Sinaloa coast; upon touching land, “Manuel” began to lose strength, so at 13:00 it was located 65 km north-northeast of Altata, Sin., as a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 100 km / h and gusts of 120 km / h.

"It was very maddening because we didn't know what was happening, but when the energy came back it was worse because we knew that everything was closed and we couldn't leave Acapulco."

Esther Jiménez.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Wilma 2005

The fierce hurricane made landfall in Mexico and tests the comprehensive prevention plan.

On October 21, 2005 Hurricane Wilma made landfall off the coast of Quintana Roo. With sustained winds that reached 280 km / h , it left one million victims in the country and economic losses of 30 million pesos , according to official figures.

The threat of the hurricane that gained brutal force in just 24 hours, going from category 2 to category 5 , with maximum sustained winds of 280 km / h this was something that really impacted everyone.

The phenomenon affected our country, where it claimed 4 victims, as well as Haiti, leaving 12 dead ; Cuba likewise 4 dead ; the Bahamas one person died from his attack ; and the United States left a balance of 3 1 dead.

A residence in the Hotel Zone, Cancun, Q. Roo.

"There is a terrible wind, the few trees that were already fell, blown away by the wind, only one radio is transmitting information, that of the City Council, but the antenna is getting worse and worse and it can fall at any time"

Edna del Valle, living in the Miramar Poniente neighborhood for MORE THAN 10 YEARS.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Stan 2005

It leaves more than 40 dead in Central America and Mexico.

It was then that the authorities of the States of Veracruz , Tabasco and Tamaulipas declared themselves in a state of maximum alert, issuing the call to the population to take refuge in the reception centers before the imminent arrival of tropical storm Stan , turned into Category 1 Hurricane , according to the scale of Saffir-Simpson . While in Central America, Stan has left 40 dead and more than 17,000 victims.

Winds reached sustained winds of up to 120 km / h , with more intense gusts, according to NOAA data ( National Hurricane Center ). The tropical storm combined with a cold front and caused severe damage in the north of Veracruz affecting some 170 municipalities , 800,000 people and 21,000 homes. >

In the Mexican territory, torrential rains caused floods in Yucatan and Campeche, causing the evacuation of 1,000 people and the total closure of schools in Chiapas. While in the state of Tabasco, the authorities were kept alert by the threat of heavy rains.

 Photographs of damage caused by Hurricane Stan in El Salvador.

TESTIMONY

Isidoro Trinidad

“This that just happened began on October 4 the rain as it was supposed to, but it was increasing and increasing, the rain day and night and we thought that it was going to stay that way, because it had happened on past occasions, but this time the river level increased and did not stop; in previous years the increase in the level of the river had already occurred and that is why we trusted ourselves; it was so that when we least realized the truth I had nowhere to run and we saw that the houses closest to the river were taking them away; The days went by and the level increased until we were forced to leave ... we lost everything. "

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Hurricane Paulina 1997

One of the deadly, destructive and expensive cyclones during the second half of the 20th century.

Paulina originated from a tropical wave on October 5, 1997 410 km south-southwest of Huatulco, Oaxaca. Initially it had an eastward shift, but then turned north-northwest. During the day October 7 , Paulina registered its maximum intensity reaching the category 4 on the scale of Saffir-Simpson with sustained winds of 215 km / h and gusts of up to 240 km / h . On the afternoon of October 8 , it made landfall near Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca, causing serious damage to the coast of that state. At dawn on October 9 , he parked in the state of Guerrero, leaving the port of Acapulco practically destroyed, Paulina would dissipate in the early hours of the day October 10 in the state of Jalisco.

Hard to believe but this image was taken in Acapulco, Guerrero.

Unusual

Entire families were engulfed by the flows that devastated the hills, whose slopes were covered with irregular settlements. The cardboard, wood and palm districts, many of them built on the banks of rivers and streams, disappeared entirely from the map.

No doubt he spent a full week in the midst of terror with the sense of survival triggered to protect yours and your own life.

Testimony

Paulina produced a torrential record rainfall in Acapulco of 411.2 mm accumulated in less than 24 hours. The floods severely affected leaving 230 to 400 people dead . Nearly 300,000 people were left homeless and damages of 80 billion pesos were recorded.

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Hurricane Gilberto 1988

Gilberto the terrible hurricane of the 20th century

It is considered to be one of the most devastating cyclones on record in the Atlantic Ocean.

In Mexico, Gilberto lashed the states of Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Campeche, Nuevo León, Coahuila and Tamaulipas , causing the death of at least 250 people , and close to 150 thousand victims , as well as losses of 750 million dollars .

The hurricane known as the 20th century , was formed on September 8, 1988 as a tropical depression, during its movement through the Caribbean water It intensified into a Category 3 hurricane .

Foto: Unión Cancún

It struck the Island of Jamaica causing the death of 49 people , in addition to millionaire losses in infrastructure, as well as serious damage to crops

After leaving Jamaica, Gilberto quickly intensified again, reaching sustained winds of 296 km / h and made landfall again on September 14 in the Peninsula of Yucatan, being already a powerful Category 5 hurricane , being Cozumel the first affected, continuing its journey on land by Playa del Carmen, X-can, and Chemax , maintaining its same category 5 up to 85 kilometers inland .

Foto: Grupo SIPSE

It was until 3:30 p.m. that his intensity decreased to category 4 during his time at Tizimín . He left Yucatan at around 19:00 hours , leaving in his wake close to 35,000 victims , 60,000 homes destroyed and damages for more than $ 1 million .

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Liza 1976

This hurricane reached category 4 on September 30, 1976 before hitting the southern peninsula of Baja California and Sonora with force, it hit the bay of La Paz leaving in its wake a great devastation, and -to date more than 43 years after the event- there is no official death toll; The virtual sources that recall the cyclone indicate that the Ángel César Alvarado government initially spoke of 600 people being killed, however, since then it has been speculated that the victims could be between 2,000 and up to 5,000 . The natural phenomenon left 10,000 victims, with total damages of 3 million pesos .

Of course: all the sources consulted coincide in pointing to this cyclone as " The worst disaster in the history of Baja California Su r"

Oct. 2, 1976: Car rests on top of second in aftermath of Hurrican Liza that lashed La Paz, Mexico. Over 400 people were died in La Paz. This photo was published in the Oct. 3, 1976 Los Angeles Times.

Real evidence of Mrs. Irma

What Doña Irma remembers the most is the next day: October 1, when with her husband and son they went home to the Infonavit neighborhood .

"It looked like La Paz had been bombed," he said. In the course of his parents' house to his home, crossing as best they could by the Forjadores, he assures that from Morelos High School to Colima he saw approximately 30 or more citizens dead, semi-buried and full of mud , who had literally been thrown onto the streets by the streams. Many more did not have the same "luck", as the current took them directly to the sea, without their whereabouts ever being known.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Janet 1955

Renaissance Monument after Hurricane Janet (1955)

It is the first of which there is a record. The Hurricane Janet cataloged as category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, made landfall on September 27, 1955, in Quintana Roo. According to the press of the time, the most affected city was precisely its capital, Chetumal, leaving 712 dead in its wake (data from Cenapred ) and devastated practically all the houses that were found since most of them were made in such a way.

Unusual cases:
Each hurricane has its own way of leaving its mark and leaving something in particular that the population does not forget, in the case of Hurricane Janet, how to forget the flag that crossed a tree, from which there is a replica on the esplanade of the flag (main park of Chetumal). Another unusual case is that of the “flying house” and the concrete pond that was wound on a palm tree. The "flying house" exists is made of wood and zinc sheet, it is on the Veracruz road with 22 de Enero corner in the center of the city. The anecdote, " was dragged more than 500 meters from its initial location, with about 25 people inside, during the impact of Janet" .

This was the path Janet took

As it happens in our days, many people left the protection of their family and their homes until the end . Expensive they would pay big mistake. In addition, just a few days earlier, on September 19, another hurricane had visited south of Quintana Roo "Hilda" that had basically passed through the area of ​​Felipe Carrillo Puerto, causing very slight damage in Chetumal. Then it was naively thought that this had already covered the "annual quota" of hurricanes, today we know that this does not work that way, even the worst was lacking ...