12-14 storms forecast for Hurricane Season 2019

The density map of the above tropical trajectory was created by analyzing analog years, which are past years that have weather patterns similar to current and projected weather patterns. Analogous years are often used to predict future trends and impacts during a hurricane season. They can be based solely on the El Niño phenomenon or on a combination of weather patterns and teleconnections, which are weather patterns that occur in another part of the world and that can significantly influence current or future weather in a particular area of ​​concern.

After experiencing an active Atlantic hurricane season last year, AccuWeather's group of experts predicts that 2019 will be a slightly higher than normal season with a total of 12 to 14 storms.

Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are expected to be category three or more hurricanes.

"This year, we believe there will be fewer tropical storms and fewer hurricanes, but it only takes one to cause significant damage," said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.

After Hurricanes Michael and Florence hit the US USA Last year, the expert points out that history could repeat itself with the impact of between two to four atmospheric phenomena in the region.

To help predict the upcoming season, forecasters have drawn comparisons to previous years with comparable weather conditions, also known as analog years.

In this case, due to its similarity, the year analogous to the current pattern is 1969.

During that season, Hurricane Camille impacted the Mobile, Alabama region, making it one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to have impacted the United States.

But that doesn't mean we experience something similar this year, Kottlowski said.

At the beginning of the season, however, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring development potential on the southeast coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

"Those are the areas that we will monitor very closely, not only from June, but from April to May, since the Atlantic temperatures are high," said the expert.

THE HURRICANE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC OFFICIALLY STARTS JUNE 1

If this [El Niño] pattern continues or strengthens, then the number of tropical storms and hurricanes will be near or below normal, "said Kottlowski. "If El Niño weakens and becomes neutral, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes could be higher than normal," he added.

source: AccuWeather