/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Dorian forecast: Errors and achievements

Dorian devastated everthing he found from The Bahamas to Canada. The national Hurricane Center studied the strom´s formation and development, and how well meteorologists predicted its trajectory and intensity.

What was the verdict?

Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24, 2019 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, crossed the Eastern Caribbean Sea, passing through the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. But this was just de beginning of a journey that would last 15 days and would leave thousands of victims.

The Trajectory

The storm started as a small disturbance in the Caribbean area with dry air, which tends to weaken possible hurricanes. The European numerical model, the most reliable in recent years, could not predict its genesis and the GFS model predicted that it would form much further east. Also, when the storm began to take shape, forecasters did not agree on where the center of the storm would be. "Dorian´s forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking 3 centers" said the specialists.

One of the first paths for Dorian was that it was going to cross over “La Española” and “Puerto Rico” where it was expected for the mountains to dissipate the storm. Another forecast showed him going to Florida. The surprise came when Dorian formed and turn to the right interacting with warmer water. Thanks to this, the storm was able to quickly intensify into a hurricane, resulting in a lack of warning, which would have been necessary for some of the islands at its path, according to the report.

The intensification

After the consolidation stage, forecasters were able to predict the storm´s trajectory without major difficulties. However, they failed in determining its intensity. There was no indication that it would strengthen into a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 m/h, even less that it would stop at the Bahamas for several hours.

Another big dilemma for the meteorologists was whether or not to issue warnings for The Florida. Forecasts showed that the storm´s trajectory was heading north, avoiding the state. But taking into consideration previous mistakes, there were great doubts. They saw an advantage in what had not been able to predict. The storm was not moving fast, and if it deviated from the predicted trajectory, there would be time to issue warnings.

In the end, Dorian effectively took a turn northward as planned, and this successful forecast saved Florida residents and its government a lot of money on unnecessary evacuations.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • • / comentarios

uncapped heroin from Hurricane Dorian.

Chella Phillips saved 97 dogs from dying.

As everyone knows The Bahamas has been viralized by that intense hurricane Dorian , a hurricane that will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the most devastating hurricanes so far in the Hurricane Season 2019 . You know now that the passage of the hurricane destroyed people's homes, flooded the streets and caused the death of at least five inhabitants.

Given the authorities' warning that the weather phenomenon would hit the Caribbean islands, residents prepared as best they could, bought groceries, and took refuge in shelters or their homes. But a woman named Chella Phillips worried not only about keeping her safe, but about street dogs that would have no place to shelter.

He opened the doors of his home to 97 ownerless canines so that they could be safe during hurricane storms.

CHELLA PHILLIPS.

Chella Phillips had to share her room with 79 dogs, but that was the easiest part of having rescued them. Keeping them and their brother who accompanied her in their shelter safe was difficult. The first night Dorian's eye fell on the Bahamas, rain began to flood his home. They used three pumps to drain the water but it was not enough and the liquid exceeded them . After an hour of relentless trying, all of the machinery had overheated and burned, so they had to try to scoop the water out, but they failed entirely.

They ran out of services and their TV broke down from the lightning of the storms that hit the area, so she couldn't use the cartoons to entertain the dogs that were inside her house, and she won't be able to do until you get a new one.

Despite the complications experienced, the Chella was able to keep the 97 dogs safe, with food and water.

Phillips is the director of The Voiceless Dogs of Nassau, a dog shelter in the Bahamas. "I am not affiliated with the Humane Society nor do I receive any kind of government aid. Only me and my love for these homeless dogs is what I do ", he says in the description on his Facebook page.

For eleven years, when she moved to the archipelago, she has been dedicated to helping street animals and four years ago she opened the refuge. During that time, with his own money and donations, he has managed to help 1,000 street dogs.