/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Dorian forecast: Errors and achievements

Dorian devastated everthing he found from The Bahamas to Canada. The national Hurricane Center studied the strom´s formation and development, and how well meteorologists predicted its trajectory and intensity.

What was the verdict?

Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24, 2019 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, crossed the Eastern Caribbean Sea, passing through the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. But this was just de beginning of a journey that would last 15 days and would leave thousands of victims.

The Trajectory

The storm started as a small disturbance in the Caribbean area with dry air, which tends to weaken possible hurricanes. The European numerical model, the most reliable in recent years, could not predict its genesis and the GFS model predicted that it would form much further east. Also, when the storm began to take shape, forecasters did not agree on where the center of the storm would be. "Dorian´s forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking 3 centers" said the specialists.

One of the first paths for Dorian was that it was going to cross over “La Española” and “Puerto Rico” where it was expected for the mountains to dissipate the storm. Another forecast showed him going to Florida. The surprise came when Dorian formed and turn to the right interacting with warmer water. Thanks to this, the storm was able to quickly intensify into a hurricane, resulting in a lack of warning, which would have been necessary for some of the islands at its path, according to the report.

The intensification

After the consolidation stage, forecasters were able to predict the storm´s trajectory without major difficulties. However, they failed in determining its intensity. There was no indication that it would strengthen into a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 m/h, even less that it would stop at the Bahamas for several hours.

Another big dilemma for the meteorologists was whether or not to issue warnings for The Florida. Forecasts showed that the storm´s trajectory was heading north, avoiding the state. But taking into consideration previous mistakes, there were great doubts. They saw an advantage in what had not been able to predict. The storm was not moving fast, and if it deviated from the predicted trajectory, there would be time to issue warnings.

In the end, Dorian effectively took a turn northward as planned, and this successful forecast saved Florida residents and its government a lot of money on unnecessary evacuations.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • History • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • / comentarios

Who says that a Tropical Storm is not dangerous?

Who says that a Tropical Storm is not dangerous?

Many people normally when listening to "tropical storm" think that it is not something to which we must attribute so much attention or that represents a danger to our family or that threatens our home and / or business, we simply pay attention to it when we find out of the approach of a hurricane; but big mistake, this time this is an example of a tropical storm that triggered tragedies.

The tropical storm #Fay on August 15, 2008 penetrating from the east and leaving from the south (Haiti). Fay the sixth tropical storm of that Atlantic Hurricane Season , has already left victims. A woman has drowned and her two children have disappeared when a stream overflows in the municipality of Higuey, in the east of the Dominican Republic, due to the intense rains caused by the tropical storm " Fay ".

The heavy rains that fell on the Dominican Republic and kept much of the nation on high alert, 2,230 people were forced to take refuge in shelters in the capital of the country, Santo Domingo, and affected 446 homes. Throughout the day, the storm Fay was then that it began to move towards Haiti.

Arroyo “Chau Chau”

The 32-year-old fatality lost his life when he and his husband and two children attempted to cross the overflowing “Chau Chau” stream in a vehicle. The husband survived, but his two children were taken from him and swept away by the current ...

The director of civil defense reported

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Paulina 1997

One of the deadly, destructive and expensive cyclones during the second half of the 20th century.

Paulina originated from a tropical wave on October 5, 1997 410 km south-southwest of Huatulco, Oaxaca. Initially it had an eastward shift, but then turned north-northwest. During the day October 7 , Paulina registered its maximum intensity reaching the category 4 on the scale of Saffir-Simpson with sustained winds of 215 km / h and gusts of up to 240 km / h . On the afternoon of October 8 , it made landfall near Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca, causing serious damage to the coast of that state. At dawn on October 9 , he parked in the state of Guerrero, leaving the port of Acapulco practically destroyed, Paulina would dissipate in the early hours of the day October 10 in the state of Jalisco.

Hard to believe but this image was taken in Acapulco, Guerrero.

Unusual

Entire families were engulfed by the flows that devastated the hills, whose slopes were covered with irregular settlements. The cardboard, wood and palm districts, many of them built on the banks of rivers and streams, disappeared entirely from the map.

No doubt he spent a full week in the midst of terror with the sense of survival triggered to protect yours and your own life.

Testimony

Paulina produced a torrential record rainfall in Acapulco of 411.2 mm accumulated in less than 24 hours. The floods severely affected leaving 230 to 400 people dead . Nearly 300,000 people were left homeless and damages of 80 billion pesos were recorded.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Gilberto 1988

Gilberto the terrible hurricane of the 20th century

It is considered to be one of the most devastating cyclones on record in the Atlantic Ocean.

In Mexico, Gilberto lashed the states of Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Campeche, Nuevo León, Coahuila and Tamaulipas , causing the death of at least 250 people , and close to 150 thousand victims , as well as losses of 750 million dollars .

The hurricane known as the 20th century , was formed on September 8, 1988 as a tropical depression, during its movement through the Caribbean water It intensified into a Category 3 hurricane .

Foto: Unión Cancún

It struck the Island of Jamaica causing the death of 49 people , in addition to millionaire losses in infrastructure, as well as serious damage to crops

After leaving Jamaica, Gilberto quickly intensified again, reaching sustained winds of 296 km / h and made landfall again on September 14 in the Peninsula of Yucatan, being already a powerful Category 5 hurricane , being Cozumel the first affected, continuing its journey on land by Playa del Carmen, X-can, and Chemax , maintaining its same category 5 up to 85 kilometers inland .

Foto: Grupo SIPSE

It was until 3:30 p.m. that his intensity decreased to category 4 during his time at Tizimín . He left Yucatan at around 19:00 hours , leaving in his wake close to 35,000 victims , 60,000 homes destroyed and damages for more than $ 1 million .

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Liza 1976

This hurricane reached category 4 on September 30, 1976 before hitting the southern peninsula of Baja California and Sonora with force, it hit the bay of La Paz leaving in its wake a great devastation, and -to date more than 43 years after the event- there is no official death toll; The virtual sources that recall the cyclone indicate that the Ángel César Alvarado government initially spoke of 600 people being killed, however, since then it has been speculated that the victims could be between 2,000 and up to 5,000 . The natural phenomenon left 10,000 victims, with total damages of 3 million pesos .

Of course: all the sources consulted coincide in pointing to this cyclone as " The worst disaster in the history of Baja California Su r"

Oct. 2, 1976: Car rests on top of second in aftermath of Hurrican Liza that lashed La Paz, Mexico. Over 400 people were died in La Paz. This photo was published in the Oct. 3, 1976 Los Angeles Times.

Real evidence of Mrs. Irma

What Doña Irma remembers the most is the next day: October 1, when with her husband and son they went home to the Infonavit neighborhood .

"It looked like La Paz had been bombed," he said. In the course of his parents' house to his home, crossing as best they could by the Forjadores, he assures that from Morelos High School to Colima he saw approximately 30 or more citizens dead, semi-buried and full of mud , who had literally been thrown onto the streets by the streams. Many more did not have the same "luck", as the current took them directly to the sea, without their whereabouts ever being known.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Tormenta tropical • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Janet 1955

Renaissance Monument after Hurricane Janet (1955)

It is the first of which there is a record. The Hurricane Janet cataloged as category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, made landfall on September 27, 1955, in Quintana Roo. According to the press of the time, the most affected city was precisely its capital, Chetumal, leaving 712 dead in its wake (data from Cenapred ) and devastated practically all the houses that were found since most of them were made in such a way.

Unusual cases:
Each hurricane has its own way of leaving its mark and leaving something in particular that the population does not forget, in the case of Hurricane Janet, how to forget the flag that crossed a tree, from which there is a replica on the esplanade of the flag (main park of Chetumal). Another unusual case is that of the “flying house” and the concrete pond that was wound on a palm tree. The "flying house" exists is made of wood and zinc sheet, it is on the Veracruz road with 22 de Enero corner in the center of the city. The anecdote, " was dragged more than 500 meters from its initial location, with about 25 people inside, during the impact of Janet" .

This was the path Janet took

As it happens in our days, many people left the protection of their family and their homes until the end . Expensive they would pay big mistake. In addition, just a few days earlier, on September 19, another hurricane had visited south of Quintana Roo "Hilda" that had basically passed through the area of ​​Felipe Carrillo Puerto, causing very slight damage in Chetumal. Then it was naively thought that this had already covered the "annual quota" of hurricanes, today we know that this does not work that way, even the worst was lacking ...