/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Durious fact • History • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • / comentarios

Hurricane Dorian forecast: Errors and achievements

Dorian devastated everthing he found from The Bahamas to Canada. The national Hurricane Center studied the strom´s formation and development, and how well meteorologists predicted its trajectory and intensity.

What was the verdict?

Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24, 2019 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, crossed the Eastern Caribbean Sea, passing through the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. But this was just de beginning of a journey that would last 15 days and would leave thousands of victims.

The Trajectory

The storm started as a small disturbance in the Caribbean area with dry air, which tends to weaken possible hurricanes. The European numerical model, the most reliable in recent years, could not predict its genesis and the GFS model predicted that it would form much further east. Also, when the storm began to take shape, forecasters did not agree on where the center of the storm would be. "Dorian´s forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking 3 centers" said the specialists.

One of the first paths for Dorian was that it was going to cross over “La Española” and “Puerto Rico” where it was expected for the mountains to dissipate the storm. Another forecast showed him going to Florida. The surprise came when Dorian formed and turn to the right interacting with warmer water. Thanks to this, the storm was able to quickly intensify into a hurricane, resulting in a lack of warning, which would have been necessary for some of the islands at its path, according to the report.

The intensification

After the consolidation stage, forecasters were able to predict the storm´s trajectory without major difficulties. However, they failed in determining its intensity. There was no indication that it would strengthen into a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 m/h, even less that it would stop at the Bahamas for several hours.

Another big dilemma for the meteorologists was whether or not to issue warnings for The Florida. Forecasts showed that the storm´s trajectory was heading north, avoiding the state. But taking into consideration previous mistakes, there were great doubts. They saw an advantage in what had not been able to predict. The storm was not moving fast, and if it deviated from the predicted trajectory, there would be time to issue warnings.

In the end, Dorian effectively took a turn northward as planned, and this successful forecast saved Florida residents and its government a lot of money on unnecessary evacuations.

/ By David Maldonado / Blog • Hurricane. • Storms-Hurricanes/ • • • • • • / comentarios

HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS 2019 How many hurricanes are expected?

The hurricane season began today in the Pacific and in the Atlantic it will begin in June, both will end in late November of this 2019. The names of the hurricanes are recycled every six years.

For this hurricane season in the Atlantic this is the forecast.

Asimismo, se pronosticó Centro Nacional de Huracanes (NHC, por sus siglas en inglés) que en el Océano Pacífico habrán 24 huracanes, mientras que para el Atlántico prevé 21.

 

source: Sipse.com

/ By David Maldonado / Blog/ • • • / comentarios

12-14 storms forecast for Hurricane Season 2019

The density map of the above tropical trajectory was created by analyzing analog years, which are past years that have weather patterns similar to current and projected weather patterns. Analogous years are often used to predict future trends and impacts during a hurricane season. They can be based solely on the El Niño phenomenon or on a combination of weather patterns and teleconnections, which are weather patterns that occur in another part of the world and that can significantly influence current or future weather in a particular area of ​​concern.

After experiencing an active Atlantic hurricane season last year, AccuWeather's group of experts predicts that 2019 will be a slightly higher than normal season with a total of 12 to 14 storms.

Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are expected to be category three or more hurricanes.

"This year, we believe there will be fewer tropical storms and fewer hurricanes, but it only takes one to cause significant damage," said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.

After Hurricanes Michael and Florence hit the US USA Last year, the expert points out that history could repeat itself with the impact of between two to four atmospheric phenomena in the region.

To help predict the upcoming season, forecasters have drawn comparisons to previous years with comparable weather conditions, also known as analog years.

In this case, due to its similarity, the year analogous to the current pattern is 1969.

During that season, Hurricane Camille impacted the Mobile, Alabama region, making it one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to have impacted the United States.

But that doesn't mean we experience something similar this year, Kottlowski said.

At the beginning of the season, however, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring development potential on the southeast coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

"Those are the areas that we will monitor very closely, not only from June, but from April to May, since the Atlantic temperatures are high," said the expert.

THE HURRICANE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC OFFICIALLY STARTS JUNE 1

If this [El Niño] pattern continues or strengthens, then the number of tropical storms and hurricanes will be near or below normal, "said Kottlowski. "If El Niño weakens and becomes neutral, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes could be higher than normal," he added.

source: AccuWeather

/ By David Maldonado / Blog/ • • • • • • / comentarios

WARNING RISK OF IMPACT OF A HURRICANE IN YUCATÁN

Specialists affirm that the risk increases since a system has not reached Yucatan for a long time; will be two Atlantic cyclones that are category three or greater

According to specialists on the subject, the hurricane season in the Atlantic would be within normal standards for this year, although it was specified that several forecasts are still missing to be presented in the coming months, so that Yucatan must be aware of the reports.

According to specialists on the subject, the hurricane season in the Atlantic would be within normal standards for this year, although it was specified that several forecasts are still missing to be presented in the coming months, so that Yucatan must be aware of the reports.

  • 13 Cyclones
  • 8 Tropical Storms
  • 3 Moderate hurricanes between categories 1 and 2
  • 2 intense hurricanes categories 3 or greater

Although it is unknown when and where they would form.

Likewise, it was reported that there will be more forecasts in the months of June and July and one more at the end of August, although everything indicates that when El Niño ends, this could give way to cyclonic systems at sea Atlantic, so Yucatan must be pending.

Last year, 15 tropical systems were formed in the Atlantic, of which at least two, "Flourish" and "Michael", caused severe damage in the United States, resulting in the season was cataloged as catastrophic, according to specialists.

Likewise, it was mentioned that in the case of Yucatan, THE RISK OF AN IMPACT OF A HURRICANE IS GREATER BECAUSE FOR SEVERAL YEARS AGO, A SYSTEM DID NOT REACH THE ENTITY; THE LAST ONE WAS “Isidoro” IN 2002, WHILE “Dean” DID HIS OWN IN 2007 AT THE PENINSULAR LEVEL.

Fuente: la verdadnoticias.com