In the las decades, numerous studies have suggested that global warming could increase the number and intensity of tropical cyclones. However, recent research has shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases should already have caused a small increase on the intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide. But while there has been an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the oceans have clearly warmed in recent decades, the global trend in the strength of tropical cyclones, does not coincide with the increase in these factors.
In the view of this large puzzle of factors with big uncertainties that influence the potential intensity of tropical cyclones, NOAA produced simulations considering four different scenarios:
Beginning with the simplest scenario: if we hadn´t experimented with burning fossil fuels, the sea surface temperature and the potential intensity of the cyclones would have remained approximately the same approximate since 1850 until now. But if we look at what happens with the greenhouse gases and aerosols, so, the reality scenario 4) the surface sea temperature has clearly increased, but the potential intensity of the tropical cyclones has not. It has fluctuated slightly but we have not seem the same clear upward trend in the sea surface temperature until the past 2 decades. When we look at scenarios 2 and 3 things get very interesting. The computer model shows that the warming the warming provided by the greenhouse gases at the sea surface temperature is 2 to 3 times greater than the cooling effect of aerosols.
However, the increase in the potential intensity caused by the greenhouse gases is almost the equal to the decrease caused be aerosols.
In spite of the aerosols action, acting against greenhouse gases effects, the published study in the magazine “Natural Hazards” showed that, in the absence of a strong decrease of these gases emissions, the potential futures strength of greenhouse gases will dominate each time more the impact of aerosols, which will lead to substantially major increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones.
When we look at scenarios 2) and 3) things get very interesting. The computational model shows that the warming provided by greenhouse gases at sea surface temperature is two to three times greater than the cooling effect.
Creditos: Meteored.com.ar
As everyone knows The Bahamas has been viralized by that intense hurricane Dorian , a hurricane that will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the most devastating hurricanes so far in the Hurricane Season 2019 . You know now that the passage of the hurricane destroyed people's homes, flooded the streets and caused the death of at least five inhabitants.
Given the authorities' warning that the weather phenomenon would hit the Caribbean islands, residents prepared as best they could, bought groceries, and took refuge in shelters or their homes. But a woman named Chella Phillips worried not only about keeping her safe, but about street dogs that would have no place to shelter.
Chella Phillips had to share her room with 79 dogs, but that was the easiest part of having rescued them. Keeping them and their brother who accompanied her in their shelter safe was difficult. The first night Dorian's eye fell on the Bahamas, rain began to flood his home. They used three pumps to drain the water but it was not enough and the liquid exceeded them . After an hour of relentless trying, all of the machinery had overheated and burned, so they had to try to scoop the water out, but they failed entirely.
They ran out of services and their TV broke down from the lightning of the storms that hit the area, so she couldn't use the cartoons to entertain the dogs that were inside her house, and she won't be able to do until you get a new one.
Despite the complications experienced, the Chella was able to keep the 97 dogs safe, with food and water.
For eleven years, when she moved to the archipelago, she has been dedicated to helping street animals and four years ago she opened the refuge. During that time, with his own money and donations, he has managed to help 1,000 street dogs.
Many people normally when listening to "tropical storm" think that it is not something to which we must attribute so much attention or that represents a danger to our family or that threatens our home and / or business, we simply pay attention to it when we find out of the approach of a hurricane; but big mistake, this time this is an example of a tropical storm that triggered tragedies.
The tropical storm #Fay on August 15, 2008 penetrating from the east and leaving from the south (Haiti). Fay the sixth tropical storm of that Atlantic Hurricane Season , has already left victims. A woman has drowned and her two children have disappeared when a stream overflows in the municipality of Higuey, in the east of the Dominican Republic, due to the intense rains caused by the tropical storm " Fay ".
The heavy rains that fell on the Dominican Republic and kept much of the nation on high alert, 2,230 people were forced to take refuge in shelters in the capital of the country, Santo Domingo, and affected 446 homes. Throughout the day, the storm Fay was then that it began to move towards Haiti.
Although it was only category 1 , Manuel left 123 dead , 97 of them occurred in an avalanche in the community of La Pintada, Guerrero . It was also brutalized with Coahuila , Chihuahua and Durango . In addition, there were more than 59 thousand evacuees and at least 218 thousand 594 people affected . Economic losses were estimated at $ 242 million .
On September 13 in the morning the tropical depression No. 13 of the Pacific Ocean was generated, which was formed from a low pressure off the coast of Guerrero that finding favorable conditions led to a tropical depression Thirteen , which started with sustained winds of 55 km / h , gusts of 75 km / h and moving northwest at 6 km / h .
During the day 14 , the tropical storm " Manuel " began with a stationary period and then began its course heading north, moving smoothly erratic while increasing its strength off the coast of Guerrero and Michoacán , causing a wide area of dense cloudiness, whose rotation favors the significant entry of moisture into the southern and western states of the country.
On September 15 , around 2:00 pm, the tropical storm " Manuel " made landfall over the City of Manzanillo, Colima with maximum sustained winds of 100 km / h and gusts of 130 km / h , when advancing on land, the system began to lose strength due to which at 22:00, was already in the vicinity of the population of El Limón, Jalisco, as a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 km / h , gusts of 75 km / h and moving northwest at 13 km / h
At 01:00 a.m. September 16 , the tropical depression " Manuel " was located 25 km northeast of Tomatlán, Jal ., moving northwest at 13 km / h, very close to weakening at low pressure. At 4:00 on the same day, DT “ Manuel ” was already at sea again as a low pressure remaining with maximum sustained winds of 45 km / h and gusts of 65 km / h.
The low pressure, remaining from " Manuel " continued its journey to the northwest and on September 17 in the afternoon, when it was 120 km west-southwest of Mazatlán, Sin., Regenerated to a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 km / h and gusts of 75 km / h , the same force with which it was maintained until morning of day 18 , when it developed for the second time in its path to a tropical storm, being 160 km south-southwest of Culiacán, Sin., with maximum sustained winds of 65 km / h and gusts of 85 km / h.
While gaining strength, the tropical storm “Manuel” began to enter the southern part of the Gulf of California and at 7:00 p.m. on the 18th, when it was 180 km south-southeast of Topolobampo, Sin., It intensified to hurricane acquiring maximum sustained winds of 120 km / h with gusts of 150 km / h , strength with which it was maintained until 19 September at noon, when it touched the Sinaloa coast; upon touching land, “Manuel” began to lose strength, so at 13:00 it was located 65 km north-northeast of Altata, Sin., as a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 100 km / h and gusts of 120 km / h.