North Atlantic... Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
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A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has been persisting over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the last several hours. This activity is linked to a tropical wave near northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua, which is currently interacting with a large upper-level trough.
Although little development is expected over the next few days due to the system’s interaction with Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula, conditions could become slightly more favorable for limited development as the disturbance moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatán Peninsula through Thursday.
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Chance of formation in the next 48 hours: low – 10%
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Chance of formation in the next 5 days: low – 20%
Source: NOAA