We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will bring slightly more activity than usual. The weak El Niño pattern currently underway is expected to stick around, and may even strengthen as we move into the summer and fall.
Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than average, while the far North Atlantic is experiencing unusually cold conditions. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Index is also trending below its long-term average.
Because of this, we expect a slightly lower-than-average chance of major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. mainland and in the Caribbean. However, it’s important to remember that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it a serious season for your area. That’s why we should always prepare the same way—no matter what the forecasts say.
(April 4, 2019)
By Phil Klotzbach, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.
2019 Tropical Cyclone Season Forecast:
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13 Named Tropical Cyclones (Tropical Storms)
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5 Could Strengthen into Category 1 or 2 Hurricanes
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2 Could Become Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5)
Please note: This is only a forecast. It does not indicate where hurricanes may strike—use it as a reference point for preparedness, not prediction.
Source: General Directorate of Civil Protection and Firefighters