A slightly busier-than-usual hurricane season is on the horizon.
According to meteorologists at AccuWeather, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to bring between 12 and 14 named storms. Of these, five to seven could become hurricanes, and two to four might strengthen into major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher.
Last year's active season is still fresh in memory, especially after hurricanes Michael and Florence left their mark on the U.S. AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski warns that, even if the total number of storms is lower, "It only takes one to cause significant damage."
How is the forecast made?
To help make predictions, meteorologists often look to analog years—past seasons that had similar climate patterns to what we’re seeing now. These comparisons are especially useful when factoring in influences like El Niño and global teleconnections (climate patterns occurring in other parts of the world that can influence regional weather).
For 2019, the analog year being used is 1969. That year brought Hurricane Camille, one of only three Category 5 hurricanes ever to strike the U.S., hitting Mobile, Alabama with devastating force. Still, Kottlowski cautions that this doesn’t mean history will repeat itself—but it does give us an idea of what could happen.
Key Areas to Watch
AccuWeather forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the Southeast U.S. coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean—especially starting in April and May.
“With Atlantic water temperatures already running high, these areas could see early storm activity,” Kottlowski explained.
Official Start of Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but the early warming trends could prompt development even before that.
The El Niño pattern is expected to play a big role in how the season shapes up. According to Kottlowski:
“If El Niño continues or strengthens, the total number of storms and hurricanes may be near or even below average. But if El Niño weakens and shifts toward a neutral phase, we could see an above-normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes.”
Source: AccuWeather
