Hurricane Dorian left a trail of destruction from the Bahamas all the way to Canada. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) closely studied the storm’s formation, development, and just how accurate meteorologists were in forecasting its path and intensity.
So, what’s the verdict?
Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24, 2019, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It crossed the eastern Caribbean, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico—but that was just the beginning of a 15-day journey that would claim hundreds of lives.
The Track
Dorian started as a small disturbance in a part of the Caribbean filled with dry air, which usually weakens tropical systems. Interestingly, the European weather model—one of the most reliable in recent years—failed to predict Dorian’s formation, while the GFS model thought it would form much farther east.
Even once the storm began taking shape, forecasters couldn’t agree on the exact center of the system.
“Forecasting Dorian was extremely difficult—we were tracking three potential centers at one point,” specialists explained.
Early forecasts suggested Dorian would pass over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, where the mountainous terrain would likely weaken it. Another scenario had it heading for Florida. But the surprise came when Dorian shifted right, encountered warmer waters, and rapidly intensified into a hurricane. This unexpected turn and quick strengthening meant that some islands had little to no warning, according to the NHC report.
The Intensification
Once Dorian fully formed, forecasting its path became easier. However, predicting its intensity proved much more difficult.
There were no early signs that Dorian would become a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 300 km/h (185 mph)—or that it would stall for hours over the Bahamas, causing catastrophic damage.
One of the biggest challenges forecasters faced was whether or not to issue warnings for Florida. While models eventually showed the storm veering north and missing the state, earlier forecast errors made meteorologists hesitant. They were cautious because Dorian wasn’t moving quickly, which meant that even a small deviation could justify major changes in warnings and emergency plans.
In the end...
Dorian did turn north, just as predicted. And while the storm spared Florida, that successful forecast helped avoid unnecessary evacuations and saved both residents and government agencies a great deal of money.
