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How Do Humans Influence Hurricane Intensity?

Over the past few decades, many studies have suggested that global warming could increase the number and intensity of tropical cyclones. But more recent research shows that human-generated greenhouse gas emissions should have already caused a small rise in cyclone intensity worldwide.

Despite the clear increase in greenhouse gases and ocean temperatures in recent decades, the global trend in cyclone strength doesn’t fully align with those rising factors.

Different Scenarios

To understand this complex puzzle—with many variables influencing how powerful tropical cyclones can get—NOAA ran simulations based on four different scenarios:

  1. What if we had never burned fossil fuels? (No greenhouse gases, no aerosols)

  2. What if we released only greenhouse gases, but no aerosols?

  3. What if we released only aerosols, but no greenhouse gases?

  4. What actually happened: emissions of both greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Let’s start with the simplest:
If we had never burned fossil fuels, sea surface temperatures and cyclone intensity would have stayed about the same from 1850 to now.

But in the real-world scenario (scenario 4), where both greenhouse gases and aerosols are present, sea surface temperatures have clearly gone up—yet cyclone intensity hasn’t followed the same trend. It has varied slightly, but hasn't shown the same steady rise as sea temperatures, especially not until the last two decades.

Here’s why: the increase in cyclone potential intensity due to greenhouse gases has been nearly canceled out by the cooling effect of aerosols.

What the Future Holds

Even though aerosols have helped offset some warming, a study published in Natural Hazards found that—unless there are major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions—the warming effect will increasingly overpower the cooling from aerosols. This would lead to a significant future increase in cyclone intensity.

Scenarios 2 and 3 are particularly interesting. The computer models suggest that the warming effect of greenhouse gases on sea surface temperature is two to three times greater than the cooling influence of aerosols.

Credits: Meteored.com.ar