Special Outlook on Tropical Weather Conditions
Issued by the National Hurricane Center – Miami, FL
Translated by the National Weather Service – San Juan, PR
7:30 AM EDT – Friday, May 25, 2018
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that the area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea—just east of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula—has become better organized overnight. Thunderstorm activity has increased and is now more structured.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development, and it's likely that a tropical or subtropical depression—or even a named storm—could form by Saturday over the northwestern Caribbean or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
Heavy rainfall is expected across western Cuba, much of Florida, and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge to parts of the northern Gulf Coast late this weekend or early next week.
Additionally, the risk of dangerous rip currents will continue to rise along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana during the Memorial Day weekend.
For more information on these hazards, refer to your local National Weather Service office, and check the High Seas Forecast for any gale warnings related to this system.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook for this system will be issued by 2:00 PM EDT today.
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Chance of formation within 48 hours: High (90%)
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Chance of formation within 5 days: High (90%)
